What is the enrollment cliff?

The "enrollment cliff" refers to the dramatic drop in the college-age population beginning in 2025. Forecasting the number of college-age youths is a relatively simple task. Take the birthrate of a given year and fast forward 17 and 18 years — when most kids start college.

What is the enrollment cliff at colleges?

By now we all know about the demographic cliff: the number of traditional college-aged students will peak in 2025 and then decline dramatically for several years. What is less well-known is that the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds choosing to attend college reached its peak years ago and continues to decline.

What is the college enrollment trend in 2023?

Preliminary enrollment data for fall 2023 largely brought good news to colleges and universities. Undergraduate enrollment rose 2.1% compared to the year before, with all major institutional sectors enjoying increases, including four-year institutions and community colleges.

What is the enrollment cliff in 2008?

The impending cliff was initially predicted due to steadily declining birth rates since the 2008 recession. This cohort of lost babies in the years ensuing 2008 would have begun to enter college 17 years later–starting their collegiate journeys in 2025.

When did college enrollment peak?

Enrollment peaked in 2010 at 21.02 million. Since 2010, enrollment has declined 9.8%. 11.51 million or 61% of all students, graduate, and undergraduate, are enrolled full-time. 4.1 million or 20.7% of students graduate annually.

U.S. undergraduate enrollment continues to drop

How long will enrollment cliff last?

The Enrollment Cliff's Uneven Impact

Grawe's projections suggest both regions will see their college-going populations drop by more than 15% through 2029.

Is US college enrollment declining?

College enrollment among young Americans has been declining gradually over the past decade. In 2022, the total number of 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college was down by approximately 1.2 million from its peak in 2011. Most of the decline is due to fewer young men pursuing college.

Is student enrollment declining overall?

Today, fewer people are going to college than in recent years. In 2021, 15.4 million students were enrolled in an undergraduate degree program. That's the lowest fall enrollment since 2006. The NSCRC estimates that even fewer undergraduates were enrolled in spring 2023, just 14.1 million students.

What is the looming enrollment crisis?

Threatened by years of financial strain, a steep downturn in the nation's birthrate, and growing skepticism about the price and value of a college degree, higher education must address the enrollment declines quickly and effectively, before this complex challenge becomes an existential crisis.

Did high school enrollment increase in the 1920s?

The main features of the data, discussed in detail in "How America Graduated from High School," are: Graduation and enrollment rates increased greatly in the 1920s and 1930s in most regions.

Is the number of college students increasing?

While the growth is uneven, the total number of students increased by about 5% in the 2022-23 academic year compared to the year prior, according to data from the California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office.

Is college still worth it 2023?

A college degree boosts your earning potential. The median earnings of workers with a bachelor's degree are 63% higher than the earnings of those who only have a high school diploma. So if a high school degree gets you $1,200 a week, a bachelor's degree gets you nearly $2,000 a week.

Why is college enrollment declining?

As students look for a more direct link to the workforce, there's a shift "toward shorter term programs," Shapiro said. Concerns over rising costs and large student loan balances are causing more young adults to reconsider their plans after high school, a separate report by Junior Achievement and Citizens also found.

What is the demographic cliff in 2026?

It is a simple question. What is the demographic cliff? There is a simple answer. It is the reality that the number of traditional-age students in the U.S. is expected to peak in 2025 or 2026 and then decline precipitously.

How long has college enrollment been declining?

From 2010 to 2021, undergraduate enrollment dropped by 15%, translating into about 2.6 million fewer students. About 58% of that decline occurred over the decade prior to the pandemic, with about 42% of the total enrollment decline occurring between fall 2019 and fall 2021.

What is declining enrollment?

Declining enrollment means any significant decrease in the school district's enrollment which may affect the school district's allocation of funds in future years and/or the necessity of maintaining certain class sections or offerings.

What is enrollment decline?

Enrollment in California public schools has declined 6 percent since 2007, and it is projected to fall even more steeply over the next decade. At the state level, this decline is largely a result of falling birth rates, out-of-state migration, and shifting immigration patterns.

Are college attendance rates dropping?

Nationwide, undergraduate college enrollment dropped 8% from 2019 to 2022, with declines even after returning to in-person classes, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse.

Why are universities struggling?

About 95% of U.S. colleges rely on tuition, according to Franek, meaning they rely on money from students to operate. Dwindling enrollment numbers mean less money, fewer student offerings and eventually a shuttered institution.

What is the college enrollment trend in the US?

Overall enrollment is now 2% higher than the fall 2022 semester and 1% higher than in fall 2021. The NSCRC report is based on data as of September 28, 2023. It covers 9.6 million undergraduate and graduate students, as reported by about 1,500 institutions, or 55% of all those that participate in the clearinghouse.

Why are less men going to college?

Some potential students can't afford it, some don't need it for their career goals and others just don't want to. Roughly a third of men surveyed gave the latter explanation. Not forming a post-high school plan before graduation is a common reason Ferris High School college and career counselor Dawn Hilsendeger sees.

How many American don't go to college?

How many people don't go to college? In 2021, roughly 62% of people ages 18-24 were not enrolled in college. According to the Census Bureau's population estimates, that's about 19.3 million people.

Why is the US college dropout rate so high?

There is a direct correlation between lower income and an increased risk of dropout among all postsecondary students. Older students are also more likely to drop out than students who first enrolled as teenagers. There is a lower percentage of college dropouts between the ages of 35 and 64 than under 35.